Electoral Alliance Numbers, an Analysis of 2011 Returns

How would an electoral alliance have worked in the last election?

Vulnerable Conservative seats

The lists below show what Conservative ridings could have been won by various combinations of non-Conservative parties.

NDP + Liberal

The combination of NDP and Liberal votes would have won the most, 42 seats (in alphabetical order):

  • Ajax-Pickering (or all three)
  • Bramalea—Gore—Malton (or NDP and Green)
  • Brampton West (or all three)
  • Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River (or all three)
  • Don Valley West (or Liberal and Green)
  • Don Valley East (or Liberal and Green)
  • Eglinton—Lawrence (or all three)
  • Elmwood—Transcona (or NDP and Green)
  • Essex (or all three)
  • Etobicoke Centre (or Liberal and Green)
  • Etobicoke—Lakeshore
  • Fleetwood—Port Kells
  • Kenora (or all three)
  • Kitchener Centre (or all three)
  • Kitchener—Waterloo (or Liberal and Green)
  • Labrador (or Liberal and Green)
  • London North Centre (or Liberal and Green)
  • London West (or all three)
  • Lotbinière—Chutes-de-la-Chaudière (or NDP and Green or Bloc, or all 3-4)
  • Madawaska—Restigouche (or all three)
  • Mississauga South (or all three)
  • Mississauga—Erindale (or all three)
  • Mississauga East-Cooksville (or Liberal and Green)
  • Mississauga—Brampton South (or all three)
  • Mississauga—Streetsville (or all three)
  • Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe (or all three)
  • Nipissing—Timiskaming (or Liberal and Green)
  • Ottawa West Nepean (or all three)
  • Ottawa—Orléans (or all three)
  • Palliser (or NDP and Green)
  • Pickering—Scarborough East (or Liberal and Green)
  • Richmond Hill (or all three)
  • Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar (or NDP and Green)
  • Sault Ste. Marie (or all three)
  • Scarborough Centre (or all three)
  • South Shore—St Margaret’s (or all three)
  • Vancouver Island North (or NDP and Green)
  • Vancouver South (or all three)
  • West Nova (or all three)
  • West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast
  • Willowdale (or all three)
  • Winnipeg South Centre (or Liberal and Green)
  • York Centre (or all three)
  • Yukon (or Liberal and Green)

NDP + Liberal + Green

A combination of Liberal, NDP and Green votes would add 9 to the above 43, for a total of 52 seats:

  • Brampton—Springdale
  • Brant
  • Edmonton Centre
  • Fredericton
  • Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
  • Nanaimo—Alberni
  • North Vancouver
  • Nunavut
  • Peterborough

Bloc votes

With the Bloc Québécois 3 more seats could be added to the above 52, for a total of 55 seats:

  • Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean (NDP and Bloc, or all 3-4)
  • Lévis—Bellechasse (NDP and Bloc, or all 3-4)
  • Mégantic—L’Érable (NDP, Liberal, Bloc and Green)

Vulnerable opposition seats

Some 11 seats (5 each Liberal and NDP, one Bloc) were won with small margins over the second-placing Conservative candidate that make them vulnerable in the next election.

NDP

  • Montigny—L’Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup (9 votes)
  • Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca (406)
  • Dartmouth—Cole Harbour (497)
  • Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine (777)
  • Newton—North Delta (903)

Liberal

  • Winnipeg North (44 votes)
  • Westmount—Ville Marie (642)
  • Malpeque (671)
  • Scarborough—Rouge River (691)
  • Sydney—Victoria (765)

Bloc

  • Richmond—Arthabaska (717)

by Lynn McDonald and Patricia Warwick

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